Consulting · Ongoing
GeoSChEMES – geopolitical supply-chain exposure modelling
Various corporate and institutional clients
Expertise
Three practice areas. One methodological standard.
I combine economic modelling, econometrics and spatial analytics to help clients quantify how environmental and geopolitical disruptions affect economies, firms, infrastructure and health systems – and to assess the economic case for interventions.
01 / Resilience & systemic risk
Resilience, supply chains & systemic risk
What I do
I model how macroeconomic and environmental shocks propagate across interconnected countries, sectors, firms and infrastructure systems, and produce decision-support tools that quantify exposure, transmission and resilience options.
Capabilities
- Sector-country shock-propagation modelling across global supply chains
- Oligopolistic competition modelling for climate-exposed commodity markets
- Infrastructure vulnerability and adaptation-investment prioritisation
- Market sizing and demand-supply modelling for emerging sectors
- Macroeconomic scenario design for environmental and geopolitical shocks
Methods & tools
Selected projects
Consulting · Ongoing
GeoSECURE – infrastructure vulnerability to environmental hazards
Various clients
Consulting · 2024
Sizing Nigeria’s solar productive-use equipment market
World Bank
Consulting · 2021
Disaster-resilient infrastructure
Asian Development Bank
02 / Climate & biodiversity economics
Climate & biodiversity economics
What I do
I quantify how climate change, biodiversity loss and ecosystem degradation translate into economic exposure for firms, financial portfolios, supply chains and public budgets. I design scenario architectures, build damage and risk-propagation models, and produce client-facing tools that hold up under technical review.
Capabilities
- Climate-economic damage function design and calibration
- Spatio-temporal biodiversity-risk modelling and ecosystem-service valuation
- Nature-related financial-risk modelling at firm and portfolio level
- Physical and transition climate risk under multi-scenario architectures
- Sectoral exposure assessment for climate-exposed commodities
Methods & tools
Selected projects
Consulting · 2024–
GeoTHREATS – biodiversity & ecosystem-risk analytics
Various clients · corporate & public sector · ongoing
Consulting · 2021–23
NatuRisk – nature-related financial risk for corporates
Various corporate clients
Consulting · 2020
Palm oil market forecast under climate risk
Orbitas
Consulting · 2021
Nature-based solutions forecast
UN PRI · Inevitable Policy Response programme
Paper · Working paper
Out of the Woods? The Long-Term Costs of Biodiversity Loss for Brazil’s Agricultural Sector
Paper · Working paper
Natural, Social, and Financial Capitals
With Karakas, O., and Tonetto, A.
Paper · In progress
The Political Economy of Forest Loss
With Aidt, T., Cavalcanti, T., Rauh, C., and Sakurai, S.
Paper · In progress
Brazilian agricultural productivity
Working title.
03 / Environment & health
Environment & health
What I do
I quantify how climate hazards and environmental degradation translate into health outcomes – mortality, morbidity, health-system pressure – and the economic case for adaptation across households, infrastructure, healthcare systems and corporate operations. The work draws on environmental health, climate economics and applied econometric modelling, and has fed into UK national climate-risk assessment, multilateral adaptation finance design and corporate decarbonisation strategy.
Capabilities
- Econometric modelling of climate-health pathways (heat, air pollution, WASH, vector-borne disease)
- GIS-based exposure and vulnerability analysis at population and infrastructure level
- Cost-benefit analysis of adaptation under climate scenarios
- Counterfactual and avoided-damage estimation for adaptation-finance design
- Healthcare emissions modelling under varying energy-system scenarios
- Integrated environmental-economic-health modelling for policy and finance
Methods & tools
Selected projects
Consulting · 2024–26
Projection of climate risks to health from extreme heat
Climate Change Committee · UK statutory advisory body
Consulting · 2025
Urban climate-health impact model
Sustainable Markets Initiative
Consulting · 2025–26
Scalable financing for climate-health adaptation
Humanity Insured
Consulting · 2025
Healthcare innovation emissions modelling
Bupa
Consulting · Ongoing
Flood damages, losses & adaptation benefits
Melbourne Water
Paper · Working paper
Urban Climate-Health Resilience: An Economic Analysis of Preventative Interventions
With Ickovics, J. R., Briggs, C., Dehe, H., Unite, E., Astbury, K., Campbell, M., van der Horst, K., et al.
Technical stack
Tools.
Languages & environments
The toolchain used across all three practice areas. Grouped by function, not advertised as a list of acronyms.
- Economic & statistical – R, Stata, MatLab
- Spatial – QGIS, ArcGIS
- Infrastructure – AWS
- Documentation – LaTeX
- Languages – English (fluent), German (native), Spanish & French (conversational)
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